This paper examines the recent Nigerian election and allegations of rigging and intimidation. The case study by Mahmud Jega argues that while there were scattered incidents of election day problems, the claims of widespread rigging and intimidation do not add up. Jega notes that Nigerian elections have a long history of allegations of rigging and intimidation, but the 2023 election did not involve the same level of violence and irregularities seen in past elections.
The literature review explores the African attitude towards elections, which prioritizes the outcome over the process. The credible outcome, in African eyes, is usually when the incumbent ruler or party is defeated. The review notes that the 2023 Nigerian election had a low voter turnout of 27%, and only four major candidates contested the election. The top four candidates received 37%, 29%, 25%, and 6% of the vote, respectively. The review suggests that the lack of a united front among opposition parties contributed to the election's outcome.
The empirical study analysis examines the election results and allegations of rigging. The study finds that the number of states that a candidate wins outright is important, as well as the number of states in which they came second. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu won 12 states outright and came second in 19 states, with narrow margins of loss in many cases. This was similar to how Alhaji Shehu Shagari won the presidency in 1979, by winning outright in nine states and coming second in nine others.
The study also notes that allegations of rigging fall flat because APC lost the biggest states, namely Lagos, Kaduna, Kano, and Katsina, despite all of them having APC state governors who are loyal to Tinubu. The study suggests that if rigging took place, it would have been easier to do so in the biggest states rather than in smaller ones.
In conclusion, the case study, literature review, and empirical study analysis suggest that while there were scattered incidents of election day problems, the claims of widespread rigging and intimidation in the 2023 Nigerian election do not add up. The lack of a united front among opposition parties contributed to the election's outcome, and allegations of rigging fall flat because APC lost the biggest states. However, those making allegations still have the chance to prove them at the election tribunals.
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