Nigeria’s petrol market is experiencing a sustained decline in pump prices, driven by increased domestic refining from the Dangote Refinery, a strengthening naira, and improved supply chain efficiency, according to oil marketers and industry officials.
Over the course of 2025, the Dangote Refinery has reshaped the downstream petroleum landscape with multiple price reductions and a renewed pledge to supply more than 1.5 billion litres of petrol monthly from December.
The refinery’s growing output, market repositioning, and improved operational efficiency have helped stabilise supply, ease pressure on consumers, and reduce smuggling incentives across the country.
Speaking on recent market trends, Chinedu Ukadike, Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), confirmed that prices are steadily falling due to higher domestic production and a strengthening exchange rate.
“Yes, the prices are going down. It has to do with production increase by Dangote and the value of the dollar. The more the dollar goes down, the better,” Ukadike said.
Another marketer, Kingsley Smart, who runs a fuel distribution firm in Abuja, noted that improved supply chain efficiency has eliminated the usual end-of-year scarcity and stabilised distribution.
“Previously, getting products at this time of the year was challenging for independent marketers. But with the government’s assurances and steady supply, there is no panic buying,” Smart explained.
Smart also attributed the price drop to recent adjustments in depot prices by both the NNPC and the Dangote Refinery, along with a mild decline in international crude prices. “Improved domestic refining capacity and better market conditions have brought prices down,” he added.
Throughout 2025, the refinery announced several price cuts—from around N850 per litre in August to N820, and later a gantry reduction to N828 in November, with coastal prices dropping from N854 to N806 per litre.
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